A rare third year of La Niña is on deck for California, forecasters say
California has had no measurable El Niño this year. Its weather is so benign that its drought and floods might be worse, with more rain coming on average, than in the previous three years in the state. (David McNew / Los Angeles Times)
A rare third year of La Niña is on deck for California, forecasters say
Californians, now reeling from the third year in a row of below average rainfall, have a new weather worry in store. A rare third year of La Niña is in the forecast, which promises to deliver another wet year.
As we near the end of the current wet season, forecasts suggest that El Niño conditions are headed for California. When they arrive, they will mark the first time in three years that California has had no measurable El Niño, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. That means California, where a dry winter, a record drought, a flood season and wildfires are all on deck, could be worse off than in the previous two years, according to the center.
La Niña, a once-a-decade weather pattern, is a neutral weather pattern with more rain than usual and less snow, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. When the pattern is strong, it’s called El Niño. This year’s La Niña was on the warm side in California and had a record high ocean-surface temperature, which was the best-case scenario for the coming pattern.
El Niño typically brings more rain than usual, but it can also deliver more snow. The pattern could last a long time in California.
“It’s a mixed blessing,” said David Palmer, a weather scientist at NOAA at the Center for Environmental Prediction and Services and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. “It’s great if you want to get more rain on the ground — which is what we’ll get.” But if La Niña hits California when the pattern starts to break down, Palmer said, “it could turn out to be a dry year if it is strong, but it could turn out to be a record-breaking year if it is not.”
“The uncertainty of the forecast is about as large as we can get,” Palmer said